Nintendo Switch Dominates Next-Gen Console Predictions

Market research firm DFC Intelligence predicts Nintendo's Switch 2 to dominate next-gen console sales, projecting 15-17 million units sold in its first year. This forecast positions the Switch 2 as the clear leader, outpacing competitors. Read on for details.

Dominating the Market: 80 Million Units by 2028

Image from Nintendo

DFC Intelligence's 2024 Video Game Market Report, released December 17th, forecasts Nintendo as the console market leader, with the Switch 2 significantly outperforming Microsoft and Sony. This advantage stems from its anticipated 2025 release, giving it a substantial head start in a currently limited next-gen market. The report estimates sales of 15-17 million units in 2025, soaring to over 80 million by 2028. Such demand might even challenge Nintendo's manufacturing capacity.

Image from Mario official Nintendo site

While Sony and Microsoft are reportedly developing handheld consoles, these remain largely conceptual. DFC Intelligence anticipates new consoles from these companies by 2028, leaving a significant three-year window for the Switch 2's dominance. The report suggests only one of these later-released consoles will achieve substantial success, potentially a hypothetical "PS6," leveraging PlayStation's established fanbase and strong intellectual properties.

Nintendo's Switch has already achieved remarkable success, surpassing the PlayStation 2's lifetime US sales. Circana (formerly NPD) reported that the Switch, with 46.6 million units sold, holds the second position in all-time US video game hardware sales, behind only the Nintendo DS. This is noteworthy despite a reported 3% year-over-year sales decline for the Switch.

Industry Growth on the Horizon

DFC Intelligence paints an optimistic picture for the video game industry, projecting healthy growth through the end of the decade after a two-year downturn. 2025 is anticipated to be a particularly strong year, driven by new product releases. In addition to the Switch 2, the highly anticipated Grand Theft Auto VI is also slated for release, further boosting sales.

The global gaming audience is expected to exceed 4 billion players by 2027, fueled by the increasing accessibility of portable gaming and the growth of esports and gaming influencers. This expanding audience is driving increased hardware purchases, both for PCs and consoles.